BY: NICOLAS PIQUARD, CFA®, VICE-PRESIDENT, PORTFOLIO MANAGER AND OPTIONS STRATEGIST, HORIZONS ETFS
April 12, 2018
With both the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index and the Horizons Enhanced Gold Income Producers ETF (“HEP” – click on the preceding link for full fund details) down on the year (see “Annualized Performance” chart below), you might be thinking gold isn’t a good investment year-to-date.
In fact, you would be wrong.
Gold bullion had a great start to the year and is very near a multi-year high. Its current level is close to the same degree it reached in mid-2016, with one big difference: then, the S&P/TSX Gold Index was 30% higher than it is now.
If you look at the chart immediately below, it appears that gold could have more upside as well.
Price of One Ounce of Gold (in USD)
Source: Bloomberg, as at April 2, 2018.
Gold has been forming what technical analysts refer to as “upside triangles”. This occurs where a chart makes higher lows along a trend line that slowly get closer to an upside resistance level. For analysts, this is a bullish sign: it potentially means that buyers are willing to pay more for the asset, while a seller stands firm at his/her price. Once that seller is done, the theory goes, you should see a breakout in the price.
Gold has already broken out of a lower triangle at the 1,300 level, and so far this year, that level seems to be holding. The next big level is 1350-1360, which we seem to be trying to break through. We’ve gotten there three times so far this year and the price seems to want to go back to that level every time.
According to the triangle above, this should happen in the next quarter. There are currently lots of good reasons for gold to be doing well: e.g. inflation is back globally, sabre-rattling between China/USA/Russia and an Iran deal that appears to be in jeopardy. The other safe haven du jour, Bitcoin, hasn’t been much of a safe haven lately with a chart that looks quite the opposite of gold.
|S&P/TSX Global Gold
Index (Total Return)
|Horizons Enhanced Gold
Income Producers ETF (HEP)
1 As at April 2, 2018.
2 Since inception on October 2, 2000.
3 Since inception on April 11, 2011.
The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns, including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Additionally, index returns do not take into account management, operating or trading expenses that may be incurred in replicating the index. The rates of return above are not indicative of future returns. ETFs are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. The index is not directly investible.
The views/opinions expressed herein may not necessarily be the views of Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. All comments, opinions and views expressed are of a general nature and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Before making any investment decision, please consult your investment advisor or advisors.